Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 94375.458955 99500.194525 104621.528174 110120.054257 115852.965145 121650.522627 127953.099347
2025-10-05 86596.951352 94486.170419 102587.150338 111516.837331 121073.127390 130982.645607 142024.530986
2025-10-12 81128.453650 90948.400925 101249.021860 112837.892844 125490.969940 138864.509267 154045.968038
2025-10-19 76562.515570 87810.313111 99821.379528 113566.414309 128823.813990 145203.813990 164081.253647
2025-10-26 72467.115990 84806.409786 98191.973902 113739.406439 131246.997658 150297.628572 172539.050802
2025-11-02 69168.561867 82431.303539 97023.373190 114198.635081 133787.118229 155356.767440 180826.830524
2025-11-09 66015.421511 80015.392701 95621.723081 114216.945281 135673.905663 159558.370972 188054.131245
2025-11-16 63917.193172 78676.833336 95327.244827 115387.383995 138779.231568 165071.466419 196729.716890
2025-11-23 61312.979362 76610.788096 94068.634201 115327.182988 140367.608533 168774.945426 203280.542038
2025-11-30 59858.557430 75820.489645 94228.032338 116860.151654 143761.293010 174534.009460 212205.774856
2025-12-07 58242.071852 74753.763840 93988.933954 117858.921848 146478.909028 179478.315570 220177.103930
2025-12-14 56227.937238 73119.914943 92996.000418 117887.616338 147987.895383 182963.977885 226413.866692
2025-12-21 54352.912117 71608.185646 92114.313140 118027.711989 149627.441546 186625.829084 232914.182730
2025-12-28 53444.466670 71254.217167 92611.668862 119822.879656 153257.848704 192674.007432 242301.677097
2026-01-04 52439.819229 70734.500310 92868.359603 121294.630448 156480.594274 198236.660686 251133.791566
2026-01-11 51168.083542 69827.153979 92601.659002 122083.246240 158842.184549 202750.876083 258711.479529
2026-01-18 49685.034951 68597.652126 91885.596954 122270.263518 160429.719373 206306.652107 265124.404535
2026-01-25 48424.818462 67611.317403 91436.908386 122758.266426 162365.871641 210277.128933 272050.376118
2026-02-01 47018.826513 66389.423105 90647.556278 122777.862948 163687.138042 213474.700135 278025.541432
2026-02-08 46228.447691 65947.303564 90832.632411 124019.625789 166537.174638 218567.417791 286365.820567
2026-02-15 44909.988865 64764.614748 90025.489289 123955.769831 167708.654190 221558.886056 292097.046881
2026-02-22 44373.646496 64607.210233 90535.204276 125581.913787 171032.416390 227253.680618 301234.828650
2026-03-01 43627.203548 64141.460799 90620.639015 126641.267386 173623.601214 232033.928370 309248.787531